Normally we'd have inserted the word 'minnows' in front of 'Iceland', but, despite Scotland's 16th place in the FIFA World Rankings, the gap between the national team and those considered minnows is becoming smaller and the games are becoming tougher. The statistics tells us that Iceland have not beaten Scotland in four attempts and unlike Scotland, they've never qualified for a major ranking tournament. Certainly, anyone looking at the fixture on paper would immediately put money on Scotland to win tonight. But we all know that statistics don't always tell the complete story, that football is, as it always has been, a funny old game and that results, no matter how 'minnow' the opposition requires a fair application of blood, sweat and tears.
And there was certainly plenty of sweat on Saturday against Macedonia. Scotland went down to a fifth minute goal following a free-kick award that was, to put it mildly, soft but nevertheless does not excuse the fact that Naumoski should never have been given the time and space to drill the ball into the net from close range after Craig Gordon tipped the ball onto the post. The next 85 minutes was one of frustration against a side that looked comfortable and competent on the ball and which on more than one occasion caused a few skipped heartbeats in the Tartan end of the ground. There was nothing to be ashamed of in the defeat in Skopje. The Macedonians where the better side, they played the better football, they had all the possession and a fair share of luck and, to put it simply, deserved to win the game. Technically superior to the Scots, their first-touch was better, their passing crisper and their movement always dangerous.
So with one game down and seven yet to go, what can Burley do to turn the fortunes around and get the Tartan Army's march on South Africa back on track? Well, obviously a win would do just nicely, and against Iceland you'd expect us to get three points (then again, we said that about Macedonia also). We clearly don't want to start playing the 'if the results elsewhere go our way' game just yet, but it would also really help Burley's cause if Macedonia lose to Holland tonight. With home advantage in October when the Norwegians come to Glasgow, a victory in that game would put us firmly back in the driving seat. So, all is not by any means lost.
The second thing worth trying is reverting back to a 4-5-1 formation that McLeish and Smith used throughout most of the previous campaigns and which has paid dividends. We don't like the formation, but it suits the sort of football that Scotland play - physical midfield to shut down the opposition, then a quick counter-attack.
And if we must go with 4-4-2, then let's try changing our front pairing. In defence and in midfield we're happy, but we've never been convinced by the Miller/McFadden combo up front. Certainly they're good players, but like England (i.e. the Gerard/Lampard conundrum), they're two players who just never quite seem to click on the day. McFadden, technically the better of the two, tends to hangs on to the ball too long (in our opinion), while Miller just isn't fit for this game having only just recovered from a ham-string injury. We'd really like to see Fletcher - who scored twice for the U21's last week - up front, perhaps partnering McFadden, or Kris Boyd and Fletcher.
In any case, tonight will be a tough game for the Scots, because we're a team that excels as underdogs, never as favourites. It's a role that worked for us against France and Italy; whenever we're put in as favourites, we crumble under the weighty expectation of the nation, the fans and the press, and our performances suffer as a result. Let's not expect too much from tonight's game.
Just the three points will be fine.
World Cup 2010 Qualifying Group Nine
Iceland V Scotland
Venue: Laugardalsvollur Stadium, Reykjavik
Date: Wednesday, 10 September
Kick-off: 1930 BST
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