The SPL season 2008/09 Predictions (Part 1)

Following on from our look at how we think the top half of the league will finish, we conclude our Scottish Premier League season predictions with the lower half of the league.

Hearts

Hearts ended the season in eighth place last year, their worst finish since they where relegated from the old Scottish Premier league in 1981, so improvement is clearly required. The potential is certainly there - Hearts, together with Motherwell are the only other club in the SPL to have finished second in the league in the last ten years. Two years ago a team that featured Hartley, Gordon, Skacel, Pressley and Bednar romped into second place, nineteen points clear of fourth-placed Hibs. Since then, a lot has happened. Gordon, Pressley and Hartley all left (some say pushed) and though a fourth place finish in season 2006/07 is not bad these days, life at Tynecastle was anything but easy. A revolving door of managers and players, mainly Lithuanian, meant that the club was in a total state of flux and getting a settled team was not easy. Stephen Frail (the sixth manager since the end of the 2005/06 season) took over in a care-taker role and did as well as can be expected given his position was never secure.  With the arrival of a new coach, after almost seven months of searching, life at Tynecastle should be returning to normal any time soon. Hungarian Csaba Laszlo is probably the best of the various names to have been associated with the job and should go some way to repairing the damage owner Vladmir Romanov has done to the reputation of the club, providing he can get the results, and providing Romanov will leave Csaba to the job of running first team affairs. Like new England coach Fabio Capello, the new manager has been ringing in the changes: the team reports to the Riccarton training facilities early and has breakfast together before training starts as Csaba rebuilds some of the team unity. The sale of Roman Bednar to West Bromwich Albion (where he was out on loan) for £2.3m will bring some revenue to the club, which presumably will be used to buy a new striker. Super-sub Velicka had scored fourteen before was sold to Viking Stavanger (and then to Rangers) back in February while next top scorers Laryea Kingston and Andrew Driver both scored five in all competitions. Left-back David Obua is the only new signing of the new season so far while Neil McCann and Ibrahim Tall have left. We think the Csaba revolution will take some time to kick in while he gets used to the squad, and Roman and Csaba get used to each other. Like every Hearts season these days, what happens on the pitch is very much determined by what happens off it. Not league winners, better Cup runs should be a target for Csaba and Vladimir will expect better than a fourth round exit in the League Cup. With all the changes going on we think Hearts will do marginally better than last year.  Season 2010/11 will be a good one for the Tynecastle side, but for now we predict a 7th place for the Jambos.

Inverness Caley Thistle

In the last four seasons that Caley have played in the top flight, they've finished ninth, eighth, seventh and eight again. It tells a story doesn't it? Caley are one of those mid-table teams that get the results without ever really getting anywhere. They reached sixth place about midway through last following good wins over Hearts and Dundee United, but from the end of February right up to the end of the season Caley got stuck in ninth position. Very much a team that prefers to play at home Caley scored the most goals and won the most of the teams in the bottom six. Their ninth place is probably due to their thirteen defeats away from home - only Gretna had a worse away record. Good news: Inverness scored 51 goals last season, more than the three teams above them in the league and better than Aberdeen and Motherwell. The bad news: apart from Gretna, Inverness also conceded the most goals, a massive sixty-two! Joining for this season is defender Djebi-Zadi (who also had a spell at Ross County) and Ryan Esson, returning back to Scotland after a lengthy spell in England. Manager Craig Brewster also brings in Andy Barrowman from Ross County where he scored twenty-four league goals as he helped the Staggies win promotion back to the First division. A shrewd move, assuming Barrowman can handle life in the SPL, because it looks like Marius Niculae wont be staying at Caley for much longer - expect the Romanian to be gone in the January transfer window. Attacking midfielder Don Cowie (yet another former Ross County player!) was the clubs top-scorer last season. And if things get tight, manager Craig Brewster can still play: he scored in the pre-season friendly against Brora Rangers. We think that Brewster will push the team harder this year and if they can keep the "Goals Against" column nice and low, while scoring at the other end, we think Caley will improve from last year. So, Caley for eighth.

Falkirk

Falkirk start their fourth season in the top flight. Manager John Hughes brings in a lot of defenders this year, suggesting perhaps that he thinks there might be problems there. Jackie McNamara and Lee Bullen join Dermot McCaffrey and Gretna's Erik Shultz-Eklund in defence giving Falkirk a total of nine first team defenders. Strangely enough however, with only forty-nine goals against, Falkirk conceded the fewest goals of all the teams in the bottom six. Neill McCann joins from Hearts where he played a minor role this season, spending most of it on the injured list but he'll add experience to a relatively young midfield together with Russell Latap. Scoring wise, Falkirk like to spread it about a bit: not a single player reached double figures last year, but the forty-five goals they scored last season had to come from somewhere. With the exception of Pedro Moutihno, all the clubs scorers from last season are still with the club. Michael Higdon and Carl Finnigan scored fifteen goals between them, while Graham Barret contributed six. With that kind of goal scoring however you're not going to push the top six and we don't see Falkirk improving greatly this season. Ninth place for the Bairns.

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock and Mount Vesuvius have something in common: both lie dormant for a few years and then suddenly explode. Like we outlined in a previous posting Kilmarnock are due a good season, but we doubt it is going to be this one. Kilmarnock were truly dreadful last season. Their eleventh place finish  was their worst finish in years, and it was only thanks to Gretna that Kilmarnock survived at all. Ten wins and ten draws got them trough the season and their thirty-nine goals scored was one of the lowest in the league. Much to ponder on then for manager Jim Jefferies as the start of the season approaches. Allan Russell joins to help score some more goals (he scored 26 for Airdrie last season) and fill in for previous top scorer Colin Nish who left for Hibernian in the January transfer window. An anxious season for Kilmarnock then. We think they'll survive, but only just. We also have Jim Jefferies as favourite for first managerial casualty this season.

Hamilton Academicals

Ten years after their last appearance in the SPL, the Accies make another return to the top flight. We think they'll do better this year than they did last time out when they where relegated again straight away. This time though, Hamilton are a team in good form. Runaway winners of the First Division (a very tough league to get out of), with sixty-two goals scored and only twenty-seven conceded, well,  that's a better record than Motherwell last season. Ok, so we're comparing apples and oranges - the SPL is a much stronger league than the First - but Hamilton where undefeated at home where they scored twenty-nine goals and conceded only three. Richard Offiong scored twenty-one goals last season, the only player to get into double figures. James McCarthy (a player tipped for greatness), Simon Mensing and James McArthur where the other goal scorers. With the addition of Derek Lyle, signed from Dundee, Billie Reid now has plenty of firepower up front. The trick will be keeping the goals out at the other end. Hamilton have a shocking record against the other SPL sides (and especially Celtic, who beat The Accies 8-0, 8-3 and 7-1 in recent years) so it'll be up to the experienced players in the side to keep the campaign on track. If they can keep that winning mentality from last season going, the Accies will be fine. We think they can, so we've got the them in eleventh place.

St Mirren

When considering who to pick for the team to go down, we knew it was going to be one of Hamilton, Kilmarnock or St Mirren. After much debate, we went for St Mirren. Aside from Gretna, St Mirren where the only other team in the league never to get out of the bottom six for the duration of the season: seventh was the highest position reached. For the most part, the Buddies hovered around the ninth and tenth places. The problem is easy: they can't score. With twenty-six goals, St Mirren had the lowest 'Goals For' score in the league - even Gretna scored more. If the Paisley side are to survive this season, they're going to have to score and stop conceding so many goals. Manager Gus McPherson obviously recognises this problem, bringing in Dennis Wyness from division rivals Inverness Caley Thistle, while Tom Brighton will bring some pace to the front line. Billy Mehmet, top scorer last season with eight goals has committed his future to the club for another three years. Jack Ross strengthens the defence, and Steven Robb gives McPherson another option on the left wing. A good cup run might brighten up what will be a long season, so hopefully they'll do better than last years sixth-round exit to St Johnstone and the embarrassing defeat to East Fife in the second round of the League Cup.  St Mirren move to their new stadium on January 31 but we're not sure that the stadium will be seeing Premier League football for much longer. For us, St Mirren are the team to go down this year.

So, that's it, our predictions for the new season. We reckon the final table will look like this come the end of May:

1  Celtic    (C)
2  Rangers
3  Aberdeen
4  Dundee United
5  Motherwell
6  Hibernian
7  Hearts
8  Inverness
9  Falkirk
10 Kilmarnock
11 Hamilton
12 St Mirren (R)

Do you agree with us? Let us know via the comments or the forum. Tomorrow we'll bring you our First, Second and Third division predictions to keep you going while Inside Left goes on a wee pre-season break to Ireland.