A 10 point-gap in the SPL: is the season over?

Travelling back home through Gatwick last night, I quickly checked the football scores before switching off the phone for the flight. At the time, Rangers where winning 1-0 against St Mirren and Celtic where 1-0 up against Hibs.

Nothing unusual in that I thought, but as an illustration of the fragility of the Old Firm this season, by the time I landed in Rotterdam, Celtic had somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and websites across the nation decreed the end of the Scottish football season for 2009/10.

Ten points - 4 games - now separate the Ugly Sisters at the top of the table, and that costly defeat last night means Celtic now have Hibs breathing over their shoulders - with Dundee United a win away from drawing level on 41 points.

To re-use a word I've heard a lot in the last few days during the whole Dunfermline saga, namely precedence, there have been occasions when seemingly unassailable leads have been pulled back. For example, Rangers made up at most a 7 point deficit last season to clinch the title on the last day, while Celtic made up a 6 gap the season before that to win their third consecutive league title.

But the lead Rangers now hold over Celtic is 10 points and it's worth remembering that on this very day in season 2006/07, Celtic had built up an even larger gap - 19 points to be exact - at the top of the table. Rangers managed to reduce to 12 come the end of May, but the title still ended up at Parkhead.

I guess what I am saying is that while 7 or 8 points could be overhauled, anything more than that seems a little too much to ask for. I could be wrong, but that's the way I see it. Before the Old Firm game on the 28th of February, the fixture list for both sides looks like this:

Rangers: Falkirk (h), Motherwell (a), Hibs(h), St Johnstone (a)
Celtic: Accies (a), Kilmarnock (a), Hearts (h), Aberdeen (a), Dundee United (h)

Out of those fixtures, I'd expect Rangers to possibly only drop points against Hibs. Celtic however face a tougher fixture list, with both Hearts (who gave Rangers a scare earlier) and United to come, and that away fixture in Aberdeen won't be easy either, with Aberdeen showing signs of a return to form in that 3-0 win at Hearts last night - they're also the only team to have beaten Rangers this season.

I reckon Rangers will get 10 points from their upcoming fixtures (I think they'll drop points against Hibs, though you'd need to go back to October 2007 for the last time the Hibees came away with points from Ibrox, and 2001 before that). I think Celtic will pick up 11 points from a possible 15, with the points being dropped against Hearts and United, meaning that going into March, the gap will remain pretty much the same as it is now.

I genuinely believe the league is over for this season: Rangers will hang on to that lead (though it may get hairy towards the end, with both the 2008/09 and 2007/08 seasons being decided on the final day).

Where I think the real excitement will be this season is in who finishes second to clinch that all-important Champions League place. Hibs could overtake Celtic this Saturday should they beat St Mirren at Easter Road and Celtic slip-up at Hamilton; it's unlikely, but you never know. I think a more likely scenario is that Hibs and United will trade places in third and fourth, with one of these two teams overtaking Celtic when they lose to Rangers in the Old Firm clash at the end of February.

For Tony Mowbray, his return to Scottish football management has not been plain sailing, and the pressure must be building. Danny Galbraith’s injury-time winner has even Mowbray accepting that Celtic need to win every game between now and the end of the season - something he later claimed would not happen. Celtic fans vented their frustration at the team by throwing scarves and ticket books onto the pitch at the final whistle. Two points from a possible nine at home is not League-winning form, and their Scottish Cup tie in the next round against Dunfermline (who finally go through after an extra-time win over Stenhousemuir) was earned after a tiresome and narrow victory over struggling First division Morton.

His opposite numbers at Ibrox, Walter Smith, has survived a turbulent few weeks in which his own future was at stake, and that of the club. With the transfer window about to close, he's managed to hold on to some of the crown jewels, i.e., Kris Boyd, Steven Davis - for now. With Davis and Boyd being courted by Birmingham (currently home to former Rangers captain Barry Ferguson), Smith may soon be looking to find replacements as part of his preparations for season 2010/11, no doubt relishing the challenge of defending his ninth league title as Rangers manager.