The SPL Season 2008/09 Predictions (Part 1)

We cant put if off any longer. With only a few more weeks to go before the season kicks off in all it's wonderful footballing glory, the time has come to do what every football site has to do round about this time of the summer: we stick our necks out and try and predict the seasons winners and losers. In Scotland, picking the winner is an easy task. Compared to England where, depending on who you believe, you have a one in four chance of guessing the right winner, in Scotland those odds are shortened to 1 in 2. A two-way bet then, and you're guaranteed to be in the money. The real trick though is not in choosing the teams finishing first and second, but rather the order of the teams finishing below that. In part one of our season's predictions, we look at the how we think the top six teams will finish this year, based on nothing more than statistics, past performances and a certain amount of wild stabs in the dark.

Celtic  - Champions

When we first started this exercise, we had Rangers coming out on top simply because we had this general perception that Celtic stuttered their way through the season while Rangers just seemed to cruise, apart from that bit at the end. On closer analysis this certainly wasn't the case. Rangers got off to a better start, sure, and led the table between January and April until they lost the Old Firm derby on the 16th April. From then on, Celtic lead the league right to the end. A goalless draw on the opening day aside, Celtic scored 22 goals in the first five games of the season. Eighty-four goals scored in total last season and only twenty-six conceded demonstrates exactly where Celtic's strengths lie. The top 2 top scorers in the SPL last year where Celtic players - Scott McDonald and Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink bagged 40 goals between them. Barry Robson scored 12 goals for Dundee United before his move to Glasgow and George Samaras managed 6 goals - he's now signed on for another year so Celtic certainly have powerful attacking options next year.  Strachan has not been too busy so far in the transfer market; perhaps he feels the squad doesn't need any reinforcements, a feeling he's underlined by the fact the roster has stayed pretty much the same over the summer months. Celtic fans would probably be hoping for some new signings, especially as their cross-town rivals are pushing out the boat in the last few weeks.  Romanian defender Gabrielle Tamas will probably sign this week, but Strachan knows what he's doing and wont be pushed into making signings he doesn't feel are required just to keep the fans happy. If we had to identify one weakness, it has to be their reliance on two strikers to get the goals. Rangers may have scored the same number of goals as Celtic, but that was spread over more players. Should either one of McDonald or Hesselink get a long-term injury, Celtic might struggle to score. Despite all of that we've got Celtic for the league again - and by a wider margin than last year.

Rangers

It's a fact of life in Scotland these days that if Celtic win the league, Rangers will finish second. Conversely, should Rangers win the league, then Celtic will finish second. As we've already got Celtic winning the league, the task of picking the team to finish behind them is easy. Walter Smith's side pushed Celtic hard all the way last season, right up to the final game. Had the fixture congestion not caught up with the Gers, perhaps results might have been different - the two draws against Hibs and Motherwell towards the end of the season where points the team could ill afford to lose, making the subsequent run-in all the harder. Added to that was the distraction, albeit a pleasant one, of a (losing) UEFA Cup final and all the off-field mess that surrounded that. Rangers lost the league on the last day when they went down 2-0 to Aberdeen but still won all the other silverware going - a penalty decider in the League Cup and a hard-fought victory of Division One outfit Queen of the South ensured that Walter Smith had something to show for all the effort.  Not altogether a disappointing season by anyone's standards then, but with Celtic going for four-in-a-row, the pressure will be on this year to make sure that doesn't happen. Cheekily bringing Kenny Miller (an ex-Celtic and ex-Rangers player) back to Glasgow was a classic move designed to piss Celtic off, but the move has also pissed Rangers fans off - £2m for a striker who scored nine times last season (admittedly playing for Derby) seems excessive, especially as you've already got some excellent attacking option up front: Kris Boyd scored 14, while Darchevile, Cousin and Novo all added to the eighty-four goals (the same as Celtic) that Rangers scored last season. The club has also recently signed another striker, Andrius Velicka, from Viking Stavanger. Bringing Christain Daily to the club was also seen as somewhat of a strange move, and David Weir is two-years short of forty and was visibly knackered in the UEFA Cup final. We're also not sure about Kirk Broadfoot at right-back.  Still, Weir brings more experience to an already relatively old defence. Rangers will definitely miss captain Barry Ferguson in the opening four months of the season while he recovers from an ankle injury. In goal they've probably got the best Scottish keeper playing in Scotland. Allan McGregor had been linked with a big money move to Spurs, but the back-up to Craig Gordon in the Scotland goal has signed a new deal with Rangers, rumoured to worth up to £5m. Rangers will do well again this year, not because (like Celtic) they're especially good, but more because they're so much better than the rest of the league. If they can avoid silly defeats like the ones to Hearts and Dundee United last year and perhaps get a point from Celtic at Parkhead (Rangers lost both Old Firm derby games at Parkhead last season), then a second place finish for Rangers is how we see it ending.

Aberdeen

Outside of the Old Firm, there are only three other places for the teams to aspire to this season: third and fourth (both European qualification places this year now that the Intertoto is being canceled) and twelfth. Relegation wont be an issue for the team we have finishing in third spot this year, but consistency will. Aberdeen had a rocky season, spending most of the first half in the bottom half and never getting higher than fourth spot. Accepting for a minute that you wont be taking points of the Old Firm, its from the basement teams that you get your points and, Hearts aside, Aberdeen certainly did that last season, though perhaps with a few too many draws. Good performances against Dundee United this season was offset by not winning a single game against Motherwell, the team that finished above them. Jimmy Calderwood is - like most teams in Scotland, Rangers and Celtic included - working with a small budget and strengthening the squad is always a problem - gone are the days when Aberdeen where a force to be reckoned with, so getting players to head this far north is a challenge.  Up front is where the main problem lies for Aberdeen: the Dons where the only team in the top six with a negative goal difference. Fifty goals scored, but fifty-eight conceded. Lee Miller was top scorer with twelve goals, the only out-and-out striker to get on the score sheet. Barry Nicholson and Sonny Aluko, good for eight goals between them have both left and most of the remaining goals came from midfielders and, bizarrely, defenders. Aberdeen's strikers need to start scoring, providing they get the service from their team mates. Losing Jackie McNamara wasn't too bad, but Barry Nicholson and his battling midfield performances will be hard to replace. Sammy Stewart and Gary McDonald have been brought in to help Scott Severin in the middle of the park, while Charlie Mulgrew joins from Wolves to help out in defence following the loss of four defenders, including the hugely popular and talented Karim Touzani, who returned to Holland, and Alan Maybury's decision not to extend his time at Pittodrie. Goalkeeping cover for Jamie Langfield has arrived in the rather large form of Frenchman Betrand Bossu who impressed on his second-half debut against Manchester United.  Generally, whenever writing a season preview for Aberdeen, the text "the fans will be expecting to challenge for the title like they did back in the early 80's" is obligatory, but thankfully not anymore. Expectations for this year are no longer a league win, but rather a good third place finish and good cup runs. With no European games to distract them this year, that's certainly achievable. So, Aberdeen for third.

Dundee United

In fourth place we've got Dundee United. Unlike east-coast rivals Aberdeen, Dundee United never strayed too far from the fourth or third spot, trading positions with Motherwell right up to the final three weeks of the season, when they didn't win another game. A final day loss to Celtic, coupled with a miracle Aberdeen win over Ranges pushed United into fifth place and a significantly lower share in the end-of-season prize money. Two shameful defeats to Gretna aside, United performed well against the rest of the league and we see that trend continuing. A League Cup Final appearance was also good even though United had a relatively easy passage to Hampden. Craig Levein has strengthened the squad considerable over the summer: Fans favourite Willo Flood is back for another year and Paul Dixon and Scott Robertson join from city rivals Dundee. Noel Hunt was top scorer with thirteen goals, and Barry Robson had scored 11 by the time the club sold him to Celtic for a cool £1.25m. United need to score more goals at Tannadice though. Of the teams in the top six, United scored the fewest at home, a mere 26. Balancing that off is the fact that - Rangers and Celtic aside - United also conceded the fewest at home, 14. The away form wasn't so good however, with only five wins in nineteen attempts. We mentioned this in our Who Are Ya profile of the club, but United have to hope that "McCurriegate" will pass over soon and without too much trouble as Craig Levein needs to keep his focus on the teams performance on the pitch, rather than his lawyers performance in the upcoming SFA hearings. Dundee United for fourth then.

Motherwell

The question we where asking ourselves in the office was whether to pick Motherwell or Hibs for fifth place. In the end we went for Motherwell, though it all depends on two things: Mark McGhee's staying power and the clubs reaction to their first full season without influential captain Phill O'Donnell. Mark McGhee decided to turn down the Hearts job after much public soul searching and a dramatic flight from the top-of-the-stairs of the plane to Lithuania. In the short-term it's probably a better decision for Motherwell than it is for McGhee. To be frank, we cant see him staying on for another season once this one is out of the way, especially if Motherwell don't - or cant - repeat the form that got them into Europe and seven points clear of fourth placed Aberdeen. For Motherwell it will be important to make the best of it while McGhee is still here. Thats not to say that McGhee carries the team: there's a lot of talent at Motherwell. Paul McQuin takes over from Phill O'Donnell as club captain. The central defender is only 22 but has been with the club for over six years. David Clarkson is another young player whose only ever played at Motherwell and scored 12 goals last season.  Ross McCormack seemed destined for a long career with Motherwell, but he's left for Cardiff, citing as one of the reasons for his departure the fuss around manager Mark McGhee. Relatively early exits from the various Cup competitions (fifth round of the Scottish Cup and the quarter-finals of the League Cup) allowed the team to focus on the league. When 'Well where knocked out of the Scottish Cup there where sixth. By the time Dundee knocked them out of the League Cup four months later, they where third. A slender +4 goal difference at home suggests that games at Fir Park are tight affairs, while Motherwell are the only club in the top six (again, excluding Celtic and Rangers) who won more games away from home than they lost. They could do with scoring a few more on the road though; goals for 20, goals against 20.  Motherwell had a better record against Hibernian than they did against Dundee United, so while we see them beating Hibernian again, we don't see them repeating the feat against either United or Aberdeen, who never won a game against Motherwell last season (we don't expect that trend to last). There's been very little transfer activity in the off-season. Bob Malcolm was the clubs last signing, and that was back in February. A fifth place for Motherwell.

Hibernian

Once you get below fifth place in Scotland, everything just seems to merge together into teams that pack the middle of the league without really threatening the top half.  There's about three teams there that could make sixth - Hearts, Falkirk, Inverness, but we go for Hibernian, simply because Hearts are still getting used to a new manager (and they where awful last year), Falkirk are begging supporters to come to the games (which never augers well) and Inverness, well, you just cant imagine it, can you?  Hibernian, like Hearts have a new manager at the helm who is starting his first season in the top flight. Mixu Paateleinen might not have got off to a good start - they're already out of Europe before the season has even started, and have posted somewhat disappointing pre-season results, but it'll all come good, we're sure of that. For one, Hibs have Steven Fletcher. Young Player of the Year, the clubs top scorer with 13 goals last season and, perhaps something that can become a distraction, a transfer target for Real Madrid. If he continues scoring and they can hold on to him past the January transfer window, Hibs should be cruising. Colin Nish Dean Shiels, Merouane Zemmama and Clayton Donaldson all contributed to the goal tally so the goals are coming from a variety of places, which is always a good thing. Captain Rob Jones remains popular with the fans and the whole Leeds transfer thing seems to have been forgotten about. Business as usual in east Edinburgh. There's only one new name to add to the roster: defender David van Zanten joins from St Mirren.  Like most of the teams outside of the top four, the only way to get into Europe is through the Cup competitions. Hibs got to the fifth round of the Scottish Cup and the third round of the League Cup, so we should be expecting better this year. In the end results conspired against Hibernian on the final day of the league season when they where beaten 2-0 by Motherwell, while Aberdeen beat Rangers to drop Hibernian from fifth to sixth place. An overall +4 goal difference last season was mainly built up at home (only Aberdeen won more games at home) which was just as well, as Hibs where the lowest scoring of the top six teams on the road.  Perhaps if Hibs can beat Dundee United next year (they drew all their games) and do better against teams they should beat, like St Mirren to who Hibs lost twice in three outings, then a higher place finish is possible. For now though, we put Hibs in sixth place, the same as last year.

So, to summarise then, this is how we see the top six finishing this season:

1  Celtic     (C)
2  Rangers
3  Aberdeen
4  Dundee United
5  Motherwell
6  Hibernian

Do you agree with us? Let us know via the comments or the forum. We'll share our bottom six predictions with you on Monday.