Seven months and thirty-eight games later, it all boils down to this - the final weekend of the 2009/10 SPL season. Six more games to go, and we can put away the scarves and the rosettes along with our hopes for our teams season.
There are only three games worth a mention in this weekends group of fixtures: one will decide who goes down, the other decides who gets the final place in the race for European football.
And with all the fuss about the sensibility of the league split doing the rounds again, anti-splitters can have a field day if Hearts lose to Celtic and St Johnstone beat Accies: seventh placed St Johnstone will have more points than sixth-placed Hearts!
Kilmarnock v Falkirk
Ah, the relegation decider. Two teams that I had a completely different ending in mind for. I reckoned Killie would have another comfortable if uninspiring season somewhere in the middle of the table. In other words, survival for another year, one of a crop of teams (along with St Johnstone, Accies and St Mirren) that has the occasional blip, but otherwise nothing too much to worry about.Somewhere on this blog you'll find me predicting St Mirren for the drop, with the Buddies fighting it out at the final hurdle with Falkirk. St Mirren have not been great but Falkirk's season has been poor. Apart from five games, they spent the entire season at the bottom of the table. Despite two credible draws against Celtic and beating Aberdeen twice, their season has been one of much disappointment. Out of Europe at the first hurdle, and out of both domestic cups after the first round, the season was always going to be about keeping heads above water.
For both of these sides, there's more to this game than just staying in the SPL. Kilmarnock are in serious debt (about £11m) and Falkirk estimate the cost of their relegation to be around the £1.5m to £2m mark. As Falkirk chairman Martin Ritchie says,
"There would be some places where we would have to tighten our belts and make some changes. It's a big jump and, given football clubs don't start in a very profitable position, you really have to find ways of actually saving almost all of that cash."
A win is vital then for both sides, unless the 14-team SPL proposal gets the go-ahead during the summer, but that looks unlikely while the teams and the league wrangle it out about format and another skewed split.
In the final analysis, Falkirk need a win, Killie need a draw. The teams have met three times this season, with Killie just edging it in terms of wins. Fortune favours the brave, and with so much at stake expect a scrappy, tight game. I like Jimmy Calderwood, so I'm hoping for a Kilmarnock win, which is how I see this game going.
Dundee United v Hibernian
Like John Hughes, Hibernian fans are probably still wondering quite how they threw away a four-goal lead against Motherwell. Cruising into a 2-6 lead with Colin Nish hat-trick, the points looked done and dusted, but at that point, Hibs just stopped playing. Defensive errors cost them three vital points and a hold on the fourth-place going into the final weekend, but it was not to be.The Internet is rife with stories of Levein walking out on the Scotland job to move to Celtic (conspiracy theorists say this may have had a lot to do with Gordon Smith's departure from the SFA), taking current Dundee United manager Peter Houston, his former assistant with him.
It would be a shame to rock the Tannadice boat again, because despite the upheaval of losing the popular Levein. United should be pleased with a good season, one that looked to set for the rocks when Levein left early on in the season, but Houston - a reluctant successor - has done a good job, while David Goodwillie is deserving of his SPL Young Player of the Year award. Dundee United's biggest worry over the summer is whether or not Peter Houston will still be their manager come next August, and whether David Goodwillie resists the urge to warm the bench at Ibrox last year, in much the same was as teammate Willo Flood warmed the bench at Parkhead.
Rangers v Motherwell
Fresh from their amazing 12-goal thriller, Motherwell travel north to Ibrox to face the league champions Rangers. Lukas Jutkiewicz's leveller against Hibs in midweek was one of the goals of the season, and was typical of the change at Fir Park since 70-year old Craig Brown took over at the club. On his arrival, he reversed the changes made by Jim Gannon (one based largely on youth, but which lost them a lot of games) and reinstated Stephen Craigan, Lasley and Hammell.Aside from a spell of four games without a win in March, Brown has kept his team in the top half of the table for the remainder of the season and in the hunt for a return to Europe.
Motherwell face Rangers tomorrow, a team to whom they've lost just the once this season in another six-goal thriller! Rangers are already champions so this game is one for the fans. Hoisting the flag, a lap of the pitch and so on. Rangers have swept the post-season awards with captain David Weir voted winner of the Scottish Football Writers Association Player of the Year and Walter Smith voted SPL Manager of the Year. They'll still want to round of this season with a final win in front of their own fans.
Three meaningless games then to round off the season. St Johnstone and Hamilton are two sides that can look back on a decent season. Derek McInness' Saints where one of the highest scoring sided in the league this year, outscoring the teams below them by some margin, as well as scoring more goals than Hearts and Motherwell.
It's a shame then that they conceded the most goals of any team in the SPL (including bottom side Falkirk). If they can sort out that defence, we better watch out next season. Accies will see another member of their youth system leaving the club over the summer, but quite where James McArthur will end up is open for debate. Rangers have been sniffing around, but McArthur may prefer a big-money transfer (relatively speaking) down South.
St Mirren against Aberdeen and Hearts against Celtic will make no difference to anyone really, except possibly the long suffering Aberdeen fans who will get a respite from the misery and dross being served up to them every week. Rumours abound about Director of Football Willie Miller's future at the club, and with many demanding the head of Mark McGhee on a plate, the summer could be long and unpleasant.
A shock Cup-exit notwithstanding, Celtic's Neil Lennon should look back over a short but successful period in charge at Parkhead. The care-taker manager has not lost a league game since taking over, scoring 17 goals along the way and conceding only five. To strengthen his case for a permanent appointment he also achieved the one thing his former boss Tony Mowbray couldn't manage: beat Rangers.
This is how we see the weekend going
Kilmarnock 2-1 Falkirk
St Johnstone 1-0 Hamilton
St Mirren 2-0 Aberdeen
Dundee Utd 1-1 Hibernian
Hearts 1-3 Celtic
Rangers 2-0 Motherwell
So that's our predictions for the final weekend. Are we right? Are we talking pish? Do let us know!
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